魂師兄觀點

Price Reverse on Volume Spike

VOLUME SPIKES
Madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups
—Nietzsche*
A volume spike is just what you would expect, a single day on which the volume
was much higher than the previous day—at least twice as high, perhaps
3 or 4 times as high.
A volume spike means that everyone has jumped into the boat at the
same time. Experienced traders will tell you that when the public jumps in,
it’s time to get out.
You can see volume spikes on the three charts that we’ve already studied.
Let’s look again at the last one, AOL. We see the highest volume days in April,
August, and September 1999, and in January 2000. What is common about

these spikes? They occur at the bottom of a price move. After a spike, prices
reverse. In Figure 13.2 spikes occur at both tops and bottoms.
A spike doesn’t tell you how long or how severe the following reversal
will be. It just tells you that the current move is exhausted. It may turn out to
be a major top or bottom, or simply a local turning point.
Volume spikes are a good example of extremes. It is easier to identify and
trade an extreme. If you start to spend a lot of time trying to decide if volume
is confirming or rejecting a price move, then it’s not clear enough to trade.
Put it aside and try to find another stock or another way to make the trade.
The theory of a spike is that when everyone has entered the market, there
is no one left to buy (or sell) and prices must reverse. The crowd is always
wrong—at least their timing is always wrong.

取自 :A Short Course in Technical Trading

雖然本書有d舊，但係用係炒賣上真係幾有用。好多時大量止蝕盤湧現之後就會向相反方向行。

期權分佈的應用

講了成個星期的大市分析，大家可能都未知個Editgrid 點睇。
我會係這篇解析

Gross 係 未平倉合約總數
Net 係淨未平倉合約總數
Gross Change/ Net Change 係同上一個交易日相比的數字
T/O 係 turnover , 成交張數
Open/High/Low/Close 就是 當日的高/開/ 低/ 收
IV call/Put 係當日 At the Money Option 的 引伸波幅，數越大代表個市越大波動。
30 day high 是當日創30 日新高的股數
30 day high 是當日創30 日新低的股數
Gap High 是當日有高開烈口的股數
Gap Low 是當日有下跌烈口的股數

去到中開的是指數期權的阻力與分水嶺的顯示
綠色的格表示牛紅分水嶺
黃色的是當月指數有機會去的位置
白色的是當月指數比較難有機會去的位置 (這個位置不是百分百準，還有其他參數需要留要的)